Compared to its peers in the worlds of publishing and music, the television industry has sailed through the last twenty years of the digital revolution relatively unscathed. There’s only so long that luck can hold, however. Let’s look at what the next five years could bring.

Multi-device, Time-shifted Consumption Is Set to Explode

In many major Western markets, the days of whole households regularly gathering around one screen to consume scheduled content are pretty much done and dusted – but it’s a trend that hasn’t quite reached our shores yet.

The latest figures from Oztam in their Australian Multi-screen Report make for fascinating reading in this regard. Australians are still remarkably loyal to the traditional model of broadcast television with 87% of viewers tuning in weekly, and a staggering 91.5% of their viewing time being devoted to live-to-air programming.

The suspicion here is that Australia is where the US was roughly ten years ago in terms of television consumption. Expect those numbers to plummet as viewing patterns switch to multi-device use and on-demand/catch-up services, particularly among younger demographics.

Traditional Networks Will Be in Big Trouble

Australian networks are still riding high in the ratings, but winter is coming. On-demand services from giants such as Amazon and Netflix are increasingly offering a range and quality of original programming that individual Australian networks will struggle to match.

Netflix, for example, recently took just half a year to get into 10% of Australian homes – an adoption rate that should terrify network bosses. At the other end of the spectrum, services such as YouTube are disrupting from below and capturing more and more of the attention of younger viewers.

We can expect to see a couple of scenarios play out here. First of all, local networks are likely to double down on reality programming – shows like The Block are proven ratings winners and relatively cheap to produce. Secondly, the rights to major sporting events are only going to become more valuable. The arrival of new entrants such as Optus, however, shows that traditional networks are no longer the only players in this particular game.

The harsh reality is that some of the largest and most aggressive companies on earth are fixing their sights on traditional television audiences, and the advertising dollars they attract. There’s very little in the history of network television providers – in either Australia or abroad – to suggest that they have the vision or technical chops to respond to this challenge. The next decade could be a bloodbath for some of the biggest names in the industry.

Personalisation Changes Everything

The individual targeting options that digital delivery opens up are set to fundamentally transform the rules of television advertising. To date, going after this audience has been the preserve of nationwide brands, or local firms with serious budgets to burn. That’s going to drastically change in the next five years.

It’s debatable how quickly existing networks such as Seven and Ten will move to embrace a programmatic model, but there’s a world of incredibly valuable untapped inventory out there that personalisation makes it possible to address – somebody is going to make a major play for it in the near future.

Meeting the Challenge of a Multi-Device Market

At MediaSmiths, we make it our business to carefully track the immense changes the ongoing digital revolution is bringing to all levels of the Australian media market. If you’re interested in exploring opportunities that a multi-device world opens up, our expert team are ready to help you craft a future-proof strategy. Get in touch today!